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Betting Strategies: |
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History has taught NFL bettors that betting over/under
totals sometimes offer a better chance to "beat the man"
than betting point spreads. This notion is supported by the
fact many land-based and online sports books offer lower
betting limits on over/under bets than they do actual sides.
This article will explore the nuances of betting on totals.
The Challenge of Betting Point Spreads
Odds-makers use point spreads to try to offset any advantage
one team might have over another on the playing field. The
goal for the bookmaker is to use the point spread to induce
bettors to come in on both sides of the game with equal
value, which would leave the bookmaker free to collect the
commission (vig) without a vested interest in the outcome of
the game.
For the handicapper, the challenge is comparing the two
teams to determine whether one team still holds a
statistical advantage over the other after the point spread
is taken into account. Odds-makers are particularly accurate
when setting point spreads for the NFL, due in large part to
more parity found in pro football than college football. The
lines are often very narrow. Even the best handicappers can
struggle to consistently find betting value when betting
point spreads on NFL games.
One of the big issues with betting points spreads is a harsh
exposure to factors that are difficult to handicap. Some of
those factors might include:
- The
possible effects of weather
- The possibility of a
key injury in the middle of the game
- Untimely turnovers
- A rash of drive
stopping penalties
- A particularly bad
performance by a single player
Any of these factors could completely destroy a
handicapper's statistical analysis and undermine any betting
value the handicapper may have identified.
Betting Totals as a NFL Betting Strategy
Betting over or under a total on NFL games is a viable
alternative to betting on specific teams. The approach is
very different and usually provides the handicapper with
less exposure to the aforementioned factors that could
disrupt a game and the bet.
The process of betting on totals requires the handicapper to
look at both NFL teams in a game in the aggregate. They are
no longer focusing on finding a statistical advantage of one
team over the other, but instead, they will be looking for
evidence a game will have a certain ebe and flow.
If someone is wondering why betting totals gives less
exposure to the above factors, one only has to consider that
when one of those factors occur, it's likely to have an
profound adverse effect on one team. The effect will have a
great impact on what happens versus the point spread. When
betting on a total, the impact is less because one team is
adversely affected while the other team gets the benefit.
It's nearly a push in regards to how it will affect a bet on
the total.
Example: Bettor
bets on the Packers. The Packers are driving for a
touchdown. An untimely interception for a defensive
touchdown (a "pick-6") will greatly impact the wager on the
Packers in two ways. A scoring drive was stopped, and the
other team puts seven points on the board. If the same
bettor was betting the over on the game, they won't be
disappointed by the interrupted drive because the other team
still got the TD. Yes, it might seem to hurt the under
bettor, but had the interception not occurred, the Packers
might have still scored.
How to Handicap Totals
Every team has a specific characteristic. Some are good
defensive teams with an adequate offense. Some teams have a
high-powered offense and an adequate defense. Some teams are
weak or strong on both sides of the ball.
When handicapping totals, the handicapper has to determine
which team will likely control the flow of the game and how
that control will affect scoring. In 2018, the Kansas City
Chiefs had the top offense in the NFL. They also had one of
the worst defenses. It was clear they would score points and
give up points. From a handicapping perspective, the
handicapper would only need to look at the characteristics
of the other team to get a sense of how the game might flow.
If the other team had a really good defense but weaknesses
on offense, there's a chance the odds-maker will overstate
Kansas City's influence on the game, creating a big total
that offer betting value on the under.
This is just one example of how a handicapper would want to
dissect a game if they intend to bet totals. Of course,
those pesky factors still matter, but still offer a chance
to improve the betting value. If snow is predicted in KC, it
will surely slow down the Chiefs' offense. The odds-makers
aren't stupid, they have access to the same information and
will certainly post a total that reflects the possibility of
snow. With that said, the advantage still goes to the
handicapper because the odds-maker may have practical
restrictions to how much they drop the line by. In fact, if
the advantage for the handicapper is too great, bookmakers
might take the total off the board. That hardly ever happens
with point spreads.
Bettors have options. When betting a game using the point
spread doesn't create a sufficient betting opportunity,
over/under betting is always a viable option.
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